This is volume 1 of a three-volume final report which thoroughly describes, synthesizes and analyzes the results of the four-year Integrated Research Project CIRCE – Climate Change and Impact Research: Mediterranean Environment, funded by the EU 6th Framework Programme. Conducted under the auspices of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Rome, Italy, CIRCE was designed to predict and to quantify the physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean, and to assess the most influential consequences for the region’s population. This volume incorporates the first two parts of the report, reviewing current knowledge of observed climate variability and trends in the Mediterranean, and including descriptions of available temperature and precipitation station and gridded data sets. Part 1 deals with analyses of the physical aspects of climate change in the Mediterranean, assessing possible changes under greenhouse concentration scenarios, estimating uncertainties, detecting and attributing past and present changes, understanding mechanisms and evaluating their relevance in the problem of climate change. Part 2 offers an overview of water resources, and reviews the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the region.

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