This is the story of 'big picture' patterns in scientific discoveries using forecasting and three archetypal patterns of discovery.
Many people envision scientists as dispassionate characters who slavishly repeat experiments until "eureka"--something unexpected happens. Actually, there is a great deal more to the story of scientific discovery, but seeing "the big picture" is not easy. Connections: Patterns of Discovery uses the primary tools of forecasting and three archetypal patterns of discovery--Serendipity, Proof of Principle, and 1% Inspiration and 99% Perspiration--to discern relationships of past developments and synthesize a cohesive and compelling vision for the future. It challenges readers to think of the consequences of extrapolating trends, such as Moore's Law, to either reach real machine intelligence or retrench in the face of physical limitations. From this perspective,the book draws "the big picture" for the Information Revolution's innovations in chips, devices, software, and networks.

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