This book provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk.

The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations.

Key Features
• Covers economic risk from exploration through production models
• Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC
• Analyzes numerical examples from the real world
• Removes "mystery" from how economics is done
• Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

Table of Contents
Preface
1 Introduction
2 Risk-Adjusted Value and Working Interest
3 Uncertainty and Probability Estimates for Risk-Adjusted Values and Working Interest
4 Portfolio Balancing and Risk-Adjusted Values under Constrained Budget Conditions
5 Similarity, Dependence, and Correlation Considerations for Risk-Adjusted Values and Working Interest
6 Modifications to Risk Aversion in High Gain Situations
7 Corporate Funding Requests, Fixed Budgets, and Cost Balancing
8 Maximizing Oil Field Profit in the Face of Uncertainty
9 The Value of Added Information: Categories of Worth
10 Counting Successes and Bidding Statistics Analyses
11 Economic Model Uncertainties
12 Bayesian Updating of an Opportunity
13 Options in Exploration Risk Analysis
Epilogue
Appendix: NumericalMethods and Spreadsheets
Bibliography
Index

Download File Size:19.09 MB

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