In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit a gallon; it peaked at .10.
In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000;
by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would
be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are
about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them
to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of
a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon,
showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted
to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore
the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist
Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock
proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about
as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive
psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something
quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author
of The Science of Fear. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including
the Michener Award. Gardner lives in Ottawa.

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