Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook
succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq
really lead to less violence? How much can CEO.s impact the performance of
their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense,
think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains
in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that
we observe in life.explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer.are
less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical
and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history
conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world
of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage,
or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy
makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will
respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been
driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to
identify these .influencers. in advance. And although successful products or
companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique
qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company
is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we
improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present.an
argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing,
as well as in science and everyday life.

Download File Size:3.01 MB

---